Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
P.J. WalkerPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, P.J. Walker’s passing yards prop is set at 184.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 184.5 (-110) after it opened @ 162.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.6 plays per game.
- Phillip Walker has attempted a measly 13.9 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 14th percentile among QBs.
- Phillip Walker has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 87.0 yards per game while checking in at the 12th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards
233
Passing Yards
