Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tyler Allgeier from EV Insight

Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards

Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-139) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to notch 13.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles rank as the best DT corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards