Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-139) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to notch 13.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles rank as the best DT corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
