Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 211.5 (-105) after it opened @ 206.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

The Baltimore Ravens have called the 7th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.
Lamar Jackson has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (205.0) this season than he did last season (238.0).
Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 201.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the league against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (67.1%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 6.55 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards