Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Jaguars vs. Giants
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-113/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-113) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.29 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to total 5.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has put up significantly more air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
- Evan Engram’s 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.6.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- Evan Engram has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.77 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
- The New York Giants pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
