Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 277.5 (-133) after it opened @ 288.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.8 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (318.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
Cons
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the least yards in the NFL (just 183.0 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 6.36 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards
262
Passing Yards
