Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-120) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Joe Burrow has passed for quite a few more yards per game (267.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).
Joe Burrow has been among the best precision passers in the league this year with a stellar 68.4% Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 6th-most yards in the league (282.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Cons

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Joe Burrow’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 7.03 yards-per-target vs a 8.12 figure last year.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards