WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Raiders vs. Texans
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 232.5 (+100) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (279.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- Davis Mills has been among the least effective QBs in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.20 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.
- The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
- The Houston Texans have incorporated motion in their offense on 30.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
