WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Raiders vs. Texans
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (184.0) to wideouts this year.
Cons
- Brandin Cooks has posted quite a few less air yards this year (71.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
- Brandin Cooks’s 59.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 71.8.
- Brandin Cooks has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
- Brandin Cooks’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 68.2% to 59.1%.
- Brandin Cooks’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a mere 5.92 yards-per-target compared to a 7.86 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
