Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Raiders vs. Texans
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-115) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- Davante Adams has run a route on 98.2% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to earn 10.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Raiders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per snap.
- Davante Adams has posted many fewer receiving yards per game (80.0) this year than he did last year (96.0).
- Davante Adams’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.3% to 57.0%.
- Davante Adams’s receiving efficiency has diminished this season, notching a mere 7.97 yards-per-target vs a 9.79 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
100
Receiving Yards
100
Receiving Yards
