Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-115) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to earn 18.6 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has received 78.2% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has generated 84.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (96th percentile).
Dameon Pierce has been among the leading running backs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 4.17 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Cons

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a giant 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards