Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Ravens vs. Browns
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 214.5 (-114) after it opened @ 215.5 (-105).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 8th-most yards in the league (271.0 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, giving up 9.20 yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
- The Cleveland Browns safeties profile as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards
239
Passing Yards
