WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (+100) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to garner 8.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Chris Godwin has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin’s 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 47.5.
- Chris Godwin has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (87.0).
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
