Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Melvin GordonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-135) after it opened @ 55.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Melvin Gordon has been given 44.8% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 6.28 yards-per-carry.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Melvin Gordon has rushed for many fewer yards per game (39.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
- Melvin Gordon’s running efficiency (3.79 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (22nd percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
