Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has garnered 58.0% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Alvin Kamara has been among the weakest running backs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging just 2.51 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 94 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards