NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. 49ers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-105) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 8.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.8% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 55.0 yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.6 plays per game.
- Deebo Samuel has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
