NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- Diontae Johnson has accrued quite a few less receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 60.6%.
- Diontae Johnson’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating just 6.18 yards-per-target vs a 7.32 figure last year.
- Diontae Johnson’s talent in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging a measly 2.61 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.16 figure last year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 131.0) to wide receivers this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
