Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-115/-119).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-119) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.6% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accrue 7.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a more important option in his team’s air attack this week (22.6% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.2% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin has been among the best WRs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 62.0 yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Terry McLaurin has put up far fewer air yards this season (89.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) versus WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards