Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ian Thomas from EV Insight

Ian ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 12.5 (-129) after it opened @ 12.5 (-120).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Ian Thomas has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this year (10.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.0%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Ian Thomas’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 51.0%.
Ian Thomas’s pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 5.35 yards-per-target vs a 6.53 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards