Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-135) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 6.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has put up a whopping 56.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 48.0 yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson’s 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 59.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards