WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to notch 5.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his team’s pass game this season (19.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.8%).
- David Njoku has accrued a whopping 33.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among TEs.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- David Njoku has totaled a lot more receiving yards per game (55.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62%) versus TEs this year (62.0%).
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 10th-best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
