Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Bailey Zappe from EV Insight

Bailey ZappePassing Yards

Right now, Bailey Zappe’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 213.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).

Pros

The New England Patriots will be rolling with backup QB Bailey Zappe in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in football (288.0 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, surrendering 8.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the league.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards