WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Bailey ZappePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Lions
Right now, Bailey Zappe’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 213.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New England Patriots will be rolling with backup QB Bailey Zappe in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in football (288.0 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, surrendering 8.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The New England Patriots offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards
212
Passing Yards
