Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Daniel Jones from EV Insight

Daniel JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 186.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 186.5 (-115) after it opened @ 186.5 (-115).

Pros

The Giants are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have utilized play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Giants rank as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 33.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards