WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Daniel JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 186.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 186.5 (-115) after it opened @ 186.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
- The New York Giants have utilized play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Giants rank as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 33.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards
207
Passing Yards
