Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

The New England Patriots will be rolling with backup QB Bailey Zappe in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to be a more important option in his offense’s passing offense this week (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (19.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards