Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-129) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per play.
Jared Goff has thrown for significantly more yards per game (262.0) this season than he did last season (229.0).
The New England Patriots defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Jared Goff’s passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 58.9%.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 205.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards