NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-129) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per play.
- Jared Goff has thrown for significantly more yards per game (262.0) this season than he did last season (229.0).
- The New England Patriots defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Jared Goff’s passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 58.9%.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 205.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards
222
Passing Yards
