Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 15.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has been given 61.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
- The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
