Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Eric Saubert from EV Insight

Eric SaubertReceiving Yards

Right now, Eric Saubert’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 8.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Eric Saubert has posted quite a few more air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (3.0 per game).
Eric Saubert’s 13.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 4.0.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
Eric Saubert has been among the weakest TE receiving threats this year, averaging a measly 11.0 yards per game while grading out in the 16th percentile among tight ends.
Eric Saubert’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.5% to 33.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards