NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Eric SaubertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Colts
Right now, Eric Saubert’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 8.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Eric Saubert has posted quite a few more air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (3.0 per game).
- Eric Saubert’s 13.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 4.0.
- The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Eric Saubert has been among the weakest TE receiving threats this year, averaging a measly 11.0 yards per game while grading out in the 16th percentile among tight ends.
- Eric Saubert’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.5% to 33.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
