NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
O.J. HowardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, O.J. Howard’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects O.J. Howard to total 4.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- O.J. Howard’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.8% to 55.4%.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (69.2%) versus TEs since the start of last season (69.2%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Houston Texans O-line has given their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
