Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-137) after it opened @ 78.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Vikings are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to garner 18.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has garnered 74.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 11th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Dalvin Cook has run for quite a few less yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
