Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 8.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Christian Kirk has been a more integral piece of his team’s passing offense this year (26.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.3%).
Christian Kirk has notched significantly more air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).

Cons

The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Christian Kirk’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.6%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards