Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accumulate 14.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- Raheem Mostert has earned 50.0% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Dolphins rank as the 10th-least run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.4% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense as the 2nd-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.77 seconds per play.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Raheem Mostert’s rushing effectiveness (3.47 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (19th percentile among RBs).
- Raheem Mostert has been among the worst running backs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.54 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
