Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Elijah MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Elijah Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Jets have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.
- Elijah Moore has been less involved as a potential target this season (92.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (65.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to accumulate 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Elijah Moore’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, accumulating a mere 1.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.81 rate last year.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (64.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
