Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 69.5 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to accumulate 5.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin has totaled a colossal 30.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Tyler Conklin has been a more important option in his team’s offense this season, staying on the field for 85.5% of snaps vs just 73.3% last season.
- The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.61 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
