NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- George Kittle has run a route on 82.5% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to notch 5.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has accrued a colossal 54.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- George Kittle’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 7.05 yards-per-target vs a 9.36 rate last season.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 42.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
