Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-130/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 92.5 (-130) after it opened @ 89.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 17.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has been given 58.7% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per play.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
