Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 274.5 (-110) after it opened @ 275.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 40.2 passes per game this year, checking in at the 79th percentile among QBs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.6% to 66.1%.
- Joe Burrow’s throwing efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging a mere 6.91 yards-per-target vs a 8.12 mark last season.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 8th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
283
Passing Yards
283
Passing Yards
