Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-105) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Hayden Hurst’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 74.0%.
- Hayden Hurst’s pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging just 5.67 yards-per-target compared to a 7.17 figure last season.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 15th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
