Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-115) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to earn 7.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Rams are a 5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 33.0) to TEs this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency against tight ends this year, allowing 3.91 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
