Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jeff Wilson from EV Insight

Jeff WilsonRushing Yards

Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-125/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-125) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to total 19.8 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (65.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.4% in games he has played).
Jeffery Wilson has run for substantially more yards per game (64.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards