Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- Mo Alie-Cox has put up a monstrous 25.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Tennessee Titans pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
- The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Mo Alie-Cox’s 13.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 21.0.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
