Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cameron Brate from EV Insight

Cameron BrateReceiving Yards

Right now, Cameron Brate’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-125) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.

Cons

Cameron Brate’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.1% to 59.8%.
Cameron Brate has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 10th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards