Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian HoyerPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Brian Hoyer’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-131) after it opened @ 200.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Patriots are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 220.0 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (68.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
