Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Josh ReynoldsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Josh Reynolds’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to notch 8.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a more integral piece of his offense’s air attack this week (23.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.8% in games he has played).
- Josh Reynolds has accounted for a colossal 26.3% of his team’s air yards this year: 75th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
