Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Josh Reynolds from EV Insight

Josh ReynoldsReceiving Yards

Right now, Josh Reynolds’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to notch 8.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a more integral piece of his offense’s air attack this week (23.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.8% in games he has played).
Josh Reynolds has accounted for a colossal 26.3% of his team’s air yards this year: 75th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards