Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Richie James from EV Insight

Richie JamesReceiving Yards

Right now, Richie James’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (+100) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Richie James to earn 7.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
Richie James has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 88.0% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown bad efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 8.79 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in the league.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.04 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in football.

Cons

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards