Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Vikings
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-113/-121).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-121) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accumulate 18.8 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has earned 71.7% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-least run-centric team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.1% run rate.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 3.91 yards-per-carry.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
- The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
