Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-120).

Pros

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to be a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this week (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
T.J. Hockenson has notched a colossal 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 52.3%.
T.J. Hockenson’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 4.22 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 figure last year.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the worst tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 15th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards