NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to be a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this week (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
- T.J. Hockenson has notched a colossal 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
- T.J. Hockenson’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 52.3%.
- T.J. Hockenson’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 4.22 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 figure last year.
- T.J. Hockenson has been among the worst tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 15th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
