Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (93.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to total 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown has accumulated a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards