Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-112/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-118) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in football (145 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Jets have been the 8th-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 32.1% run rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards