Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to garner 4.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to be much more involved in his offense’s passing game this week (17.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.6% in games he has played).
- Cole Kmet has accrued a whopping 40.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 33.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Cole Kmet’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 41.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
