Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Falcons vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to earn 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
- David Njoku has put up a whopping 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among tight ends.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- David Njoku has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for 88.6% of snaps compared to just 88.6% last year.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
