Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Falcons vs. Browns
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to garner 8.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
- Amari Cooper has posted a colossal 83.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wideouts.
- Amari Cooper’s 51.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 84th percentile for WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.92 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
